# PCN-TV/ PRESSTV (IRAN) DEBAT AVEC FABRICE BEAUR : IDLIB – LES ESPIONS D’ASSAD FAVORISENT LA PERCEE DE L’ARMEE ARABE SYRIENNE

PCN-TV/ 
PRESSTV (IRAN) DEBAT AVEC FABRICE BEAUR : 
IDLIB – LES ESPIONS D'ASSAD FAVORISENT LA PERCEE DE L'ARMEE ARABE SYRIENNE

Le commentaire de PRESS TV :
« A Idlib, la Résistance a pris de court les terroristes : de nouvelles tactiques de combat lui ont permis d'encercler très rapidement les terroristes dans le sud de la province d'Alep ainsi que dans le nord-est de Hama. 
Samedi, tous les experts militaires s'attendaient à ce que l'armée syrienne et ses alliés du Hezbollah se dirigent vers l'aéroport militaire d'Abu al-Duhur ou fassent le choix d'avancer dans la banlieue de la ville de Khanzar vers le sud de l'aéroport. On prévoyait un encerclement des terroristes dans le sud d'Alep ou encore dans le nord-est de Hama.
Mais les choses se sont produites autrement. Une nouvelle tactique de guerre a largement déconcerté le CentCom des takfiristes et les a pris de court dans une zone de quelque 3.000 kilomètres carrés, située au confluent du sud et du sud-ouest d'Alep et du nord-est de Hama. Un premier assaut samedi à l'aube s'est soldé par la libération de 11 villages, dont la banlieue de Tell al-Daman. La prise de ce secteur étendra la zone d'encerclement à 1600 kilomètres carrés. Si les 45 cités de cette région sont reprises, l'armée syrienne et ses alliés sauront contrôler les 2700 kilomètres carrés de la province. 
Selon des sources proches de l'armée syrienne, les Forces du Tigre, (force d'élite de l'armée syrienne dirigée par Souheil al-Hassan) se seraient infiltrées dans les rangs des terroristes, pour la plupart membres des brigades wahhabites Noureddin al-Zinki. Il s'agit de groupements terroristes positionnés à Anjara, leur principal bastion dans l'ouest de la province d'Alep. Une vidéo tournée dans cette même localité et datant du 11 janvier 2018 confirme la présence des soldats du Tigre dans cette même ville. Les forces du renseignement syrien et du Hezbollah opèrent dans les principales localités qu'occupent encore al-Nosra et leurs complices. La caméra de ces forces a même réussi à filmer l'intérieur de l'aéroport d'Abu al-Duhur ou encore les quartiers des villages de Saraqib et d'Ariha. 
Fabrice Beaur, expert pour l'ONG EODE, et André Chamy, juriste et analyste politique nous expliquent. »

(Source : PressTV)
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Posted in # ARTICLES BY LANGUAGES, # EODE + ZONE PROCHE ORIENT, # EODE THINK TANK, # EODE TV, * EODE/ Analyses - Rapports, * EODE/ Geopolitics, * Français | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

# LUC MICHEL’S GEOPOLITICAL DAILY/ SIRYA WAR: ‘TURKEY ALIGNED WITH AL-QAEDA AFFILIATE IN IDLIB’

 

LM.GEOPOL - Ankara with tahir al  sham in idlib (2018 01 18) ENGL (1)

 

LUC MICHEL (ЛЮК МИШЕЛЬ) & EODE/

Luc MICHEL pour EODE/

Quotidien géopolitique – Geopolitical Daily/

2018 01 18/

 

“The Astana process is on the verge of collapse, as Turkey and Russia are lining up on opposite sides in Idlib, which may prove to be the decisive battle in the Syria war”

- al-Monitor (January 14, 2018).

 

At the heart of the conflict in Syria, this war started in 2011, which ends, and already goes to a second war, the opportunistic and ambiguous position of Erdogan, shared between his neo-Ottoman geopolitical project (which presupposes the American alliance and the defeat of Damascus) and the immediate strategic demands of Kurdish containment (1), have been the subject of much debate among the experts.

 

Here is an interesting analysis of 'al-Monitor' that goes in the direction of my own analyzes, on the Levantine duplicity of the Turkish regime and its opportunistic poker shots. Here are the facts of Ankara's complicity with the jihadists (so-called "moderates") of the al-Nusra Front (al-Qaeda in Syria) in Idlib. Those precisely who have just tried to attack drones against Russian bases in Syria, with the help of an American radar aircraft of the type "Poseidon" …

 

* Résumé français :

Au coeur du conflit en Syrie, de cette guerre commencée en 2011, qui se termine, et va déjà vers une seconde guerre, la position opportuniste et ambigüe d'Erdogan, partagé entre son projet géopolitique néo-ottoman (qui suppose l'alliance américaine et la défaite de Damas) et les exigences stratégiques immédiates du "containment" des kurdes, fait l'objet de longs débats parmi les experts.

Voici une intéressante analyse de 'al-Monitor' qui va dans le sens de mes propres analyses, sur la duplicité levantine du régime turc et ses coups de poker opportunistes. Voici les faits de la complicité d'Ankara avec les djihadistes (dits "modérés") du Front al-Nosra (al-Qaida en Syrie) à Idlib. Ceux là précisément qui viennent de tenter l'attaque des drônes contre les bases russes en Syrie, avec l'aide d'un avion-radar américain du type "Poséidon" …

 

“TURKEY’S UNEASY TIES WITH HAYAT TAHRIR AL-SHAM …

IS TURKEY ALIGNED WITH AL-QAEDA AFFILIATE IN IDLIB?”

AL-MONITOR (JAN. 14, 2018)

 

* Excerpt 1/

“Turkey and Russia are lining up on opposite sides in Idlib”:

 

“The Astana process is on the verge of collapse, as Turkey and Russia are lining up on opposite sides in Idlib, which may prove to be the decisive battle in the Syria war.

Syria’s military operations in Idlib “are making Turkey so tense that it summoned the ambassadors of Iran and Russia and warned them that the Syrian army's moves violate the accord reached in Astana, Kazakhstan, which provides for de-escalation zones guaranteed by Iran, Russia and Turkey,” writes Fehim Tastekin.

Moscow has intimated that drones that targeted Russian facilities in Khmeimim and Tartus on Jan. 6 originated from areas controlled by Turkish-backed "moderate" opposition groups. Ankara has denied the charge, arguing that the attacks were the result of terrorist forces gaining a foothold in the region as a result of the Syrian offensive.

Turkey is the main backer of the "moderate" Free Syrian Army (FSA). Power in Idlib also rests with Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (2), the jihadi group that is linked with al-Qaeda and includes fellow travelers from Ahrar al-Sham (3), which lost out in the power struggle with Hayat Tahrir al-Sham. Both groups see the future of Syria as based on Islamic law, and their rule in Idlib has been characterized by tyranny and torture, as documented by Amnesty International and reported in this column.

In Ankara’s score, the Syrian offensive in Idlib is a violation of the cease-fire agreement and a threat to fragile peace negotiations. “Turkey’s sharp reaction to the uptick in fighting suggests that the agreement struck in Astana, at least as it relates to Idlib, is unraveling," writes Amberin Zaman. “The immediate trigger appears to be the series of mysterious drone attacks on Russian military bases in Syria’s Latakia province since the start of the year. Moscow apparently believes Turkey did not stick to its side of the bargain either, amid accusations that Turkish forces chose to coexist rather than curb when they moved into Idlib last October as peace monitors.”

As Syrian forces advance, and come into conflict with the FSA and Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, Turkey finds itself in an uneasy alignment with Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, putting it at odds with both Russia and Iran. “The struggle at Idlib is considered by many to be the last act of the war against a jihadi group that is basically controlled by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham under the leadership of al-Qaeda-linked Jabhat Fatah al-Sham,” writes Tastekin. “Hayat Tahrir al-Sham labels the Astana and Geneva peace processes as treason, so the cease-fire Russia formulated excludes Hayat Tahrir al-Sham as well as the Islamic State (IS). From the outset, Russia said the cease-fire covers only ‘moderate’ opposition groups; operations against Hayat Tahrir al-Sham and IS will not cease. Turkey, on the other hand — despite its approval of the Astana process — decided to place Hayat Tahrir al-Sham in a different category. Ankara first tried to reshape that organization as it had earlier with Ahrar al-Sham. When that didn’t work, Turkey tried to split Hayat Tahrir al-Sham. When that didn’t work as well, Ankara accepted the facts of life and decided to cooperate”.”

 

* Excerpt 2/

The top priority for Turkey is breaking the power of the YPG militia:

 

“The top priority for Turkey is breaking the power of the Syrian Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG) militia, which it considers a terrorist organization, linked to the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) in Turkey. “If the terrorists in Afrin don’t surrender we will tear them down,” Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said Jan. 13.

“According to Hayat Tahrir al-Sham sources,” Tastekin reports, “there were three conditions to allow Turkey's army to enter the area without encountering any opposition. One was that the target would be Afrin, where the Kurds have declared autonomy. A second would be that there would be no operation against groups controlling Idlib. The third was that local groups affiliated with Turkey's Operation Euphrates Shield would not enter the area. … Turkey’s deployment — approved and escorted by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham — was not compatible with Iran's and Russia’s definition of the de-escalation zone. Turkey was indirectly providing a shield for the organizations already dominating Idlib.”

In addition to divisions among the Astana parties, Turkey’s fractures with Hayat Tahrir al-Sham sparked divisions within the jihadi group itself. “In such a risky atmosphere, Ankara is hoping to hold on to Idlib and the triangle of al-Bab, Jarablus and Azaz that Turkey had secured in Operation Euphrates Shield, to use them as a card against Damascus in a settlement process,” Tastekin concludes. “Such a card would have serious ramifications for the fate of the Syrian president and the future of the Kurds as they seek to build their autonomy in the north. Until he gets the concessions he seeks for these two key issues, Erdogan doesn’t want the Syrian army to approach the Turkish border and face Turkish troops”.”

 

NOTES:

 

(1) See (in French): LUC MICHEL EN DEBAT SUR LE WEBSITE ‘LES 7 DU QUEBEC’ : ‘SYRIE, D’UNE GUERRE À L’AUTRE L’AGRESSION NE CESSE PAS!’ …

on http://www.lucmichel.net/2018/01/15/lucmichel-net-luc-michel-en-debat-sur-le-website-les-7-du-quebec-syrie-dune-guerre-a-lautre-lagression-ne-cesse-pas/

 

(2) Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham, "Organization for the Liberation of the Levant" or "Levant Liberation Committee"), commonly referred to as Tahrir al-Sham and abbreviated HTS, also known as “al-Qaeda in Syria”, is an active Salafist jihadist militant group involved in the Syrian War. The group was formed on 28 January 2017 as a merger between Jabhat Fateh al-Sham (formerly al-Nusra Front), the Ansar al-Din Front, Jaysh al-Sunna, Liwa al-Haqq, and the Nour al-Din al-Zenki Movement. After the announcement, additional groups and individuals joined. The merger is currently led by Jabhat Fatah al-Sham and former Ahrar al-Sham leaders, although the High Command consists of leaders from other groups. Many groups and individuals defected from Ahrar al-Sham, representing their more conservative and Salafist elements. Currently, a number of analysts and media outlets still continue to refer to this group by its previous names, al-Nusra Front, or Jabhat Fateh al-Sham.

Despite the merger, Tahrir al-Sham has been accused to be working as al-Qaeda's Syrian branch on a covert level. However, Tahrir al-Sham has officially denied being part of al-Qaeda and said in a statement that the group is "fully independent and doesn't represent any foreign body or organization". Furthermore, some factions such as Nour al-Din al-Zenki, which was part of the merger, were once supported by the US. Some analysts reported that the goal of forming Tahrir al-Sham was to unite all groups with al-Qaeda's extreme ideology under one banner, and to obtain as many weapons as possible. They also reported that many of the former Jabhat Fateh al-Sham fighters still answered to al-Qaeda, and held an increasing amount of sway over the new group. It has also been claimed that despite the recent formation of Tahrir al-Sham, the new group secretly maintains a fundamental link to al-Qaeda, and that many of the group's senior figures, particularly Abu Jaber, held similarly extreme views. Russia claims that “Tahrir al-Sham shares al-Nusra Front's goal of turning Syria into an Islamic emirate run by al-Qaeda.”

 

(3) ‘Harakat Ahrar ach-Cham al-Islamiyya’, initialement ‘Kataib Ahrar ach-Cham’ ('Islamic Movement of the Free Men of the Levant'), commonly referred to as ‘Ahrar al-Sham’, is a coalition of multiple Islamist and Salafist units that coalesced into a single brigade and later a division in order to fight against the Syrian Government led by Bashar al-Assad during the Syrian War. Ahrar al-Sham had 10,000 to 20,000 fighters, which at the time made it the second most powerful unit fighting against al-Assad, after the Free Syrian Army. It was the principal organization operating under the umbrella of the ‘Syrian Islamic Front’ and was a major component of the Islamic Front. With an estimated 20,000 fighters in 2015, Ahrar al-Sham became the largest rebel group in Syria after the Free Syrian Army became less powerful. Ahrar al-Sham and Jaysh al-Islam are the main rebel groups supported by Turkey and Saudi Arabia. The group aims to create an Islamic state under Sharia law, and in the past has cooperated with the al-Nusra Front, an affiliate of al-Qaeda. While both are major rebel groups with similar Salafist ideologies active in the Idlib region, Ahrar al-Sham is not to be confused with Tahrir al-Sham (al-Nusra Front and associates), its main rival and former ally. ‘Ahrar al-Sham’ use both Syrian opposition flag (the flag of the French coloniaml mandate before 1945) and salafist black flag.

 

(Sources: al-Monitor – EODE Think-Tank)

 

Photo:

Jihadists of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (formerly Jabbat al-Nbusra), the jihadi group that is linked with al-Qaeda.

 

LUC MICHEL (ЛЮК МИШЕЛЬ) & EODE

 

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https://www.facebook.com/LucMICHELgeopoliticalDaily/

________________

 

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TWITTER https://twitter.com/LucMichelPCN

* EODE :

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WEBSITE http://www.eode.org/ 

LM.GEOPOL - Ankara with tahir al  sham in idlib (2018 01 18) ENGL (3) LM.GEOPOL - Ankara with tahir al  sham in idlib (2018 01 18) ENGL (4)

LM.GEOPOL - Ankara with tahir al  sham in idlib (2018 01 18) ENGL (2)

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# CE JEUDI MATIN 18 JANVIER 2018 SUR AFRIQUE MEDIA/ SUR ‘LIGNE ROUGE’ LUC MICHEL ANALYSE LA DERNIERE INTERVIEW (RFI-FRANCE24) DU PRESIDENT OBIANG NGUEMA MBASOGO SUR L’ATTAQUE DE MERCENAIRES VISANT A L’ASSASSINER

 

AMTV - LIGNE ROUGE LM interview  obiang (2018 01 18)

Vers 06h30 (Douala/Yaoundé)

et 07H30 (Bruxelles/Paris/Berlin)

Luc Michel en Duplex EODE-TV avec Malabo

depuis Bruxelles

Présentation par Manuela Sike

 

AFRIQUE MEDIA

* en STREAMING sur http://lb.streamakaci.com/afm/

* sur SATELLITE sur http://www.lyngsat.com/Eutelsat-9B.html

* WebTV sur http://www.afriquemedia-webtv.org/

 

CE MATIN AU SOMMAIRE DE ‘LIGNE ROUGE’, LA GRANDE MATINALE D’AFRIQUE MEDIA DE CE 18 JANVIER 2018 …

 

THÈME :

« COUP D'ÉTAT MANQUÉ EN GUINÉE ÉQUATORIALE, OBIANG NGUEMA MBASOGO AFFIRME QUE LE FINANCEMENT PROVIENT DE ''CERTAINES PERSONNALITÉS FRANÇAISES »

 

Pour la première fois, Teodoro Obiang Nguema Mbasogo s'exprime sur cette affaire mystérieuse, qui secoue toute l'Afrique centrale. A Malabo, il a répondu aux envoyés spéciaux de RFI et France24 …

Selon la version officielle de Malabo, à la fin du mois de décembre, un commando armé venu du Cameroun a tenté de pénétrer en Guinée équatoriale, pour attaquer le Président dans son palais de Mongomo  …

 

Que dit le Président équato-guinéen à RFI-France24 :

 

Extrait/ « Je disais qu’un groupe de terroristes du Tchad – de nationalités tchadienne centrafricaine, notamment Seleka (l’ex-rébellion centrafricaine) – est arrivé aujourd’hui à convertir en groupe terroriste un groupe de Soudanais, préparé avec certaines personnalités en France.

Le problème a commencé en France.

Le financement vient de certaines personnalités pour recruter les mercenaires dans les pays que j’ai cités, mais celui [Mahamat Kodo Bani ndlr], qui a commencé les actions [est parti] de la frontière tchadienne, qui se trouve à plus de 1 000 kilomètres de la Guinée équatoriale, pour arriver jusqu’à la frontière.

Certains groupes avaient passé la frontière clandestinement, avec l’implication de certains citoyens de Guinée équatoriale. [J’ai pris] la décision d’informer le président Paul Biya. On a fait une action conjointe pour commencer à arrêter les mercenaires. C’est comme cela qu’on a fait échouer l’opération des mercenaires, [des] terroristes (…)

Je ne suis pas, en ce moment, en mesure de citer des personnes. Je demande la collaboration du gouvernement français pour faire l’enquête. (Selon) Les éléments que j’ai en ce moment le financement venait de certaines personnalités de la France. »

 

LUC MICHEL ANALYSE CETTE INTERVIEW

ET L’ARRIERE PLAN DE CETTE SOMBRE AFFAIRE …

 

Le Géopoliticien Luc MICHEL répondra aux questions essentielles sur LIGNE ROUGE :

 

* Que dit le Président équato-guinéen sur cette affaire ?

* Qui a tenté de renverser le président de la Guinée équatoriale lors des fêtes de fin d'année ?

* D'où venaient les présumés mercenaires qui ont tenté de franchir la frontière entre le Cameroun et ce pays ?

* Qui les finançaient ?

 

* Quel est le but réel de cette interview ?

* Et si l'enjeu était de mettre les présidents Deby et Obiang en conflit ?

* Quel est l'objet de cette mission française en Guinée équatoriale au moment où pour la France il n'y a pas eu tentative de « coup d'état » ?

 

ALLER PLUS LOIN …

 

* Lire sur le Website de la WEBTV

LA VOIX DE LA GUINEE EQUATORIALE/

INTERVIEW EXCLUSIVE DU PRESIDENT OBIANG NGUEMA MBASOGO PAR RFI ET FRANCE24

Sur https://www.facebook.com/Pcn.luc.Michel/photos/a.322051284595963.1073741828.321184994682592/1186535341480882/?type=3

 

AFRIQUE MEDIA / EODE-TV

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# EODE-TV/ LUC MICHEL : TCHAD – BASES MILITAIRES. IDRISS DEBY REFUSE DE RENOUVELER LE CONTRAT AVEC LA FRANCE (LIGNE ROUGE, 15 JANV. 2018)

EODE-TV/ 
LUC MICHEL : TCHAD – BASES MILITAIRES. 
IDRISS DEBY REFUSE DE RENOUVELER LE CONTRAT AVEC LA FRANCE 
(LIGNE ROUGE, 15 JANV. 2018)

Luc MICHEL
sur AFRIQUE MEDIA
EXTRAIT DE ‘LIGNE ROUGE’ 
DU LUNDI 15 JANVIER 2018
Multiplex avec Douala-Yaoundé-
Ndjaména-Malabo-Bruxelles
_____________________

EODE ORGANISATION …

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# ЕВРАЗИЙСКИЙ СОВЕТ ЗА ДЕМОКРАТИЮ И ВЫБОРЫ (ЕСДВ)/
EURASIAN OBSERVATORY FOR DEMOCRACY & ELECTIONS
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# EODE-TV/ LUC MICHEL : DESTABILISATION EN AFRIQUE CENTRALE. CAS DU CAMEROUN ET DE LA GUINEE-EQUATORIALE. QUE FAIRE ? (MERITE PANAFRICAIN, 05 JANV. 2018)

EODE-TV/ 
LUC MICHEL : DESTABILISATION EN AFRIQUE CENTRALE 
CAS DU CAMEROUN ET DE LA GUINEE-EQUATORIALE. 
QUE FAIRE ? 
(MERITE PANAFRICAIN, 05 JANV. 2018)

Luc MICHEL
sur AFRIQUE MEDIA
EXTRAIT DE ‘MERITE PANAFRICAIN’ 
DU VENDREDI 05 JANVIER 2018
Multiplex avec Douala-Yaoundé-
Ndjaména-Malabo-Bruxelles
_____________________

EODE ORGANISATION …

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# ЕВРАЗИЙСКИЙ СОВЕТ ЗА ДЕМОКРАТИЮ И ВЫБОРЫ (ЕСДВ)/
EURASIAN OBSERVATORY FOR DEMOCRACY & ELECTIONS
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# EODE-TV/ LUC MICHEL : CAMEROUN/AMNESTY – L’ONG DEMANDE LA LIBÉRATION DES SÉCESSIONNISTES ARRÊTES AU NIGERIA (LIGNE ROUGE, 15 JANV. 2018)

EODE-TV/ 
LUC MICHEL : CAMEROUN / AMNESTY 
L’ONG DEMANDE LA LIBÉRATION DES SÉCESSIONNISTES ARRÊTES AU NIGERIA 
(LIGNE ROUGE, 15 JANV. 2018)

Luc MICHEL
sur AFRIQUE MEDIA
EXTRAIT DE ‘LIGNE ROUGE’ 
DU LUNDI 15 JANVIER 2018
Multiplex avec Douala-Yaoundé-
Ndjaména-Malabo-Bruxelles
_____________________

EODE ORGANISATION …

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# ЕВРАЗИЙСКИЙ СОВЕТ ЗА ДЕМОКРАТИЮ И ВЫБОРЫ (ЕСДВ)/
EURASIAN OBSERVATORY FOR DEMOCRACY & ELECTIONS
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# EODE-TV/ LUC MICHEL : MALI : INSTABILITÉ, MANIFESTATIONS A BAMAKO CONTRE LA PRÉSENCE FRANÇAISE (LIGNE ROUGE, 12 JANV. 2018)

EODE-TV/ 
LUC MICHEL : MALI : INSTABILITÉ, MANIFESTATIONS A BAMAKO CONTRE LA PRÉSENCE FRANÇAISE 
(LIGNE ROUGE, 12 JANV. 2018)

Luc MICHEL
sur AFRIQUE MEDIA
EXTRAIT DE ‘LIGNE ROUGE’ 
DU VENDREDI 12 JANVIER 2018
Multiplex avec Douala-Yaoundé-
Ndjaména-Malabo-Bruxelles
_____________________

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# ЕВРАЗИЙСКИЙ СОВЕТ ЗА ДЕМОКРАТИЮ И ВЫБОРЫ (ЕСДВ)/
EURASIAN OBSERVATORY FOR DEMOCRACY & ELECTIONS
(EODE) :
eode.org
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Posted in # ARTICLES BY LANGUAGES, # EODE - ZONE AFRICA, # EODE THINK TANK, # EODE TV, * EODE/ Analyses - Rapports, * EODE/ Geopolitics, * Français | Tagged , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

# EODE-TV/ LUC MICHEL : CRISE ANGLOPHONE – MANIFESTATIONS DES SÉCESSIONNISTES DEVANT L’AMBASSADE DU NIGERIA A WASHINGTON (LIGNE ROUGE, 12 JANV. 2018)

EODE-TV/ 
LUC MICHEL : CRISE ANGLOPHONE – MANIFESTATIONS DES SÉCESSIONNISTES DEVANT L'AMBASSADE DU NIGERIA A WASHINGTON 
(LIGNE ROUGE, 12 JANV. 2018)

Luc MICHEL
sur AFRIQUE MEDIA
EXTRAIT DE ‘LIGNE ROUGE’ 
DU VENDREDI 12 JANVIER 2018
Multiplex avec Douala-Yaoundé-
Ndjaména-Malabo-Bruxelles
_____________________

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Posted in # ARTICLES BY LANGUAGES, # EODE - ZONE AFRICA, # EODE THINK TANK, # EODE TV, * EODE/ Analyses - Rapports, * EODE/ Geopolitics, * Français | Tagged , , , , , , | Leave a comment

# EODE-TV/ LUC MICHEL : TENTATIVE D’INVASION EN GUINEE-EQUATORIALE – OBIANG DENONCE UN COMPLOT IMMINENT CONTRE LUI (FACE A L’ACTUALITE, 02 JANV. 2018)

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LUC MICHEL : TENTATIVE D'INVASION EN GUINEE-EQUATORIALE 
OBIANG DENONCE UN COMPLOT IMMINENT CONTRE LUI 
(FACE A L'ACTUALITE, 02 JANV. 2018)

Luc MICHEL
sur AFRIQUE MEDIA
EXTRAIT DE ‘FACE A L'ACTUALITE’ 
DU MARDI 02 JANVIER 2018
Multiplex avec Douala-Yaoundé-
Ndjaména-Malabo-Bruxelles
_____________________

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# ЕВРАЗИЙСКИЙ СОВЕТ ЗА ДЕМОКРАТИЮ И ВЫБОРЫ (ЕСДВ)/
EURASIAN OBSERVATORY FOR DEMOCRACY & ELECTIONS
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Posted in # ARTICLES BY LANGUAGES, # EODE - ZONE AFRICA, # EODE THINK TANK, # EODE TV, * EODE/ Analyses - Rapports, * Français | Tagged , , , , , | Leave a comment

# LUC MICHEL’S GEOPOLITICAL DAILY/ AFRICAN GEOPOLITICS: HOW ‘RUSSIA REVISITS AN OLD COLD WAR BATTLEGROUND’ (SEEN FROM THE USA)

 

LM.GEOPOL - Russia great return in   africa (2018 01 17) ENGL (1)

 

LUC MICHEL (ЛЮК МИШЕЛЬ) & EODE/

Luc MICHEL pour EODE/

Quotidien géopolitique – Geopolitical Daily/

2018 01 17/

 

Seen from the USA … The Cold War – the new "Cold War 2.0" – is back in Africa! The Think-Tank STRATFOR (close to the Pentagon and the US Military-Industrial Lobby) devoted yesterday an interesting analysis to the return of Russia to the battlefields of the confrontation between USA and the Soviets. An analysis that reveals Washington's concerns about the great return of Moscow to Africa. Starting with sub-Saharan Africa …

 

* Résumé en français :

Vu des USA … La guerre froide – la nouvelle "Guerre froide 2.0" – est de retour en Afrique ! Le Think-Tank STRATFOR (proche du Pentagone et du Lobby militaro-industriel US) consacrait hier une intéressante analyse au retour de la Russie sur les champs de bataille de la confrontation entre les USA et les soviétiques. Une analyse qui révèle les inquiétudes de Washington sur le grand retour de Moscou en Afrique. En commençant par l'Afrique sub-saharienne …

 

“Decades after competing for influence on the continent with the United States and its allies, Russia is taking a renewed interest in Africa. Moscow looms large in sub-Saharan Africa's Cold War history, said Statfor. Across the continent, the Soviet Union competed with the United States and its Western allies for influence in a series of long-running proxy battles. Russia's interest in sub-Saharan Africa waned, however, after the Soviet Union's collapse in 1991. The region may have lost much of its geopolitical significance in the intervening time, but as the Kremlin asserts its influence in more and more conflicts abroad, sub-Saharan Africa presents Russia another opportunity to extend its global reach — should it so desire.”

 

STRATFOR:

“RUSSIA REVISITS AN OLD COLD WAR BATTLEGROUND”

 

Excerpt 1:

 “The Wagner Group, a private military company with ties to the Kremlin (1), may secure military contracts in Sudan and the Central African Republic (2). Military engagement with Russia will enable Sudan to maintain a greater balance in its foreign policy. Entering the Central African Republic will allow the Kremlin to earn more cash and drum up more business across the continent.

Moscow looms large in sub-Saharan Africa's Cold War history. Across the continent, the Soviet Union competed with the United States and its Western allies for influence in a series of long-running proxy battles. Russia's interest in sub-Saharan Africa waned, however, after the Soviet Union's collapse in 1991. The region may have lost much of its geopolitical significance in the intervening time, but as the Kremlin asserts its influence in more and more conflicts abroad, sub-Saharan Africa presents Russia another opportunity to extend its global reach — should it so desire.

 

Excerpt 2/

“A Return to the Red Sea”:

“On Jan. 5, reports emerged that the Wagner Group, a private military company with close connections to the Kremlin that has been active in Syria, had sent an unknown number of employees to Sudan. The group's deployment is unsurprising considering the decades of close ties between Khartoum and Moscow and in light of a visit by Sudanese President Omar al Bashir to the Kremlin in November. During the trip, al Bashir invited his hosts to construct a military base on the Red Sea, noting that Russian assistance was necessary to counteract U.S. interference in the area. Sudan's request followed similar moves by nearby Eritrea, Djibouti and Somalia to persuade foreign powers to construct bases on their soil in exchange for much-needed money and a boost to their global stature.

Al Bashir's plea — which has yet to receive Russian approval — seemed to represent a reversal in Sudanese foreign policy after his country's efforts in recent years to rebuild its relations with the United States. Khartoum's overtures, including cooperation over intelligence sharing, bore fruit in October 2017 when U.S. President Donald Trump's administration agreed to formally lift some sanctions against Sudan, following his predecessor's decision to suspend the measures by executive order on his way out of office. In addition, the African country has increasingly tried to distance itself from Iran, one of Russia's most prominent regional allies, in favor of cozying up to Saudi Arabia and its allies in the Gulf Cooperation Council — a lucrative reorientation for Sudan. But Khartoum is wary of putting all its eggs in one foreign policy basket.

Russian and Sudanese leaders share a hostility toward real or imagined interference in their domestic affairs. They also harbor a mutual disdain toward institutions like the International Criminal Court, which issued an arrest warrant for al Bashir in 2009 for crimes against humanity. Furthermore, Sudan serves as an important cog in Moscow's strategy to contain growing extremism in countries such as Egypt, Libya and, to a lesser extent, Syria, while offering a market for foodstuffs and military hardware. A country of approximately 40 million people, Sudan has a voracious appetite for Russian grain — the Kremlin has promised to sell 1 million metric tons of grain to the country this year. It is no less eager for energy assistance, arms and ammunition. In November 2017, Sudan became the first Arab country to receive the fourth generation of Russia's SU-24 fighter jets as part of a deal for equipment upgrades and training worth an estimated $1 billion. That agreement could be a harbinger of more deals to come: Khartoum has struggled to manage its various internal conflicts for many years and may welcome the battle-tested expertise of more Russian military trainers.” (3)

 

Excerpt 3/

“Keeping Up With an Ambitious Foreign Policy”:

“Moscow's activities in Africa don't stop there, either. Other reports suggest that the Wagner Group may soon turn its attention to the Central African Republic. News that the company will deploy a contingent to the Central African Republic fits with Moscow's increasingly ambitious foreign policy. Russia has long used its arms industry and military prowess as a tool to enhance its influence around the world. Last month, it successfully lobbied the U.N. Security Council to let it send three shipments of light arms and ammunition to the Central African Republic's military despite an arms embargo that has been in place since 2013. Of little geostrategic importance, the African country relies on its former colonial ruler, France, for external support. With little competition on the ground, Russia stands to gain greater business opportunities and perhaps even increase its influence in the surrounding region by making inroads there.

These prospective forays into Sudan and the Central African Republic don't presage a full-scale Russian military deployment to Africa. Moscow seems more interested in filling its coffers through the Wagner deals than in preparing for a massive investment drive on the continent. Even so, the potential presence of a Kremlin-backed private military company in two countries in sub-Saharan Africa could pave the way for more robust Russian involvement elsewhere in the region.”

 

NOTES :

 

(1) The ‘Wagner Group’ (ChVK Wagner) is a Russian paramilitary organisation, named for their founder and commander, "former" Spetsnaz officer Yevgeny Wagner. Some have described it as a private military company (or a private military contracting agency), whose contractors have reportedly taken part in various conflicts, including operations in the Syrian Civil War on the side of the Syrian government as well as, from 2014 until 2015, in the War in Donbass in Ukraine aiding the separatist forces of the self-declared Donetsk and Luhansk People's Republics. Others are of the opinion that ‘ChVK Wagner’ is really a unit of the Russian Ministry of Defence in disguise, which is used by the Russian government in conflicts where deniability is called for. Other source said that “Private Russian military Wagner group was created 2013 by Surkov (Putin adviser) to help Assad.”

 

(2) The ‘Wagner Group’ in Africa:

In an interview with the Russian news site ‘The Insider’ in early December 2017, veteran Russian officer Igor Strelkov said that, “besides returning to Luhansk, Wagner PMCs were also present in South Sudan and possibly Libya.” Several days before the interview was published, Strelkov stated “Wagner PMCs were being prepared to be sent from Syria to Sudan or South Sudan” after Sudan's president, Omar al-Bashir, told Russia's president Putin that his country needed protection “from aggressive actions of the USA”. Two internal-conflicts had been raging in Sudan for years (in the region of Darfur and the states of South Kordofan and Blue Nile), while a civil war had been taking place in South Sudan since 2013. The head of the private Russian firm ‘RSB-group’ said that he heard “PMCs had already went to Sudan and returned with a severe form of malaria.” Several dozen PMCs from RSB-group “were sent to Libya in early 2017, to an industrial facility near the city of Benghazi, in an area held by forces loyal to Field marshal Khalifa Haftar, to help in demining operations. They left in February after completing their mission.” The RSB-group was in Libya “at the request of the Libyan cement company (LCC).” In mid-December, a video surfaced allegedly showing Wagner PMCs training members of the Sudanese military, thus seemingly confirming Wagner's presence in Sudan and not South Sudan. In mid-January 2018, it was reported that “Wagner may deploy a contingent of its PMCs to the Central African Republic.”

 

(3) See (in French) on LUC MICHEL’S GEOPOLITICAL DAILY/

GRAND JEU AU PROCHE-ORIENT: POUTINE ‘NOUVEAU TSAR’ DE L’ORIENT (IV). MOSCOU DETACHE LE SOUDAN DE LA COALITION SAOUDIENNE

On http://www.lucmichel.net/2017/12/21/luc-michels-geopolitical-daily-grand-jeu-au-proche-orient-poutine-nouveau-tsar-de-lorient-iv-moscou-detache-le-soudan-de-la-coalition-saoudienne/

 

Photo :

Units of the ‘Wagner Group’.

 

LUC MICHEL (ЛЮК МИШЕЛЬ) & EODE

 

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LM.GEOPOL - Russia great return in   africa (2018 01 17) ENGL (3)

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